Discussion session on decision support systems for forecasting

39th Congress of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

1:30-3:00 pm, Thursday, 2 June 2015

 

The best part of a session about decision support systems for forecasting at the 39th CMOS congress may be the opportunity to meet and talk with knowledgeable and experienced people about the wide range of related issues. To make the most of this opportunity, we are planning a facilitated discussion session which will include a set of breakout/brainstorming discussions, each one addressing specific questions. The following list of questions is based on colleagues' suggestions, CMOS talks related to decision support, and several references.

          The questions are intentionally open, to encourage wide-ranging discussion, lateral thinking, and creativity. We will note points raised and afterwards compile and summarize them a document that everyone can refer to. [PS notes from a brainstorm are posted at
chebucto.ca/Science/AIMET/dss/cmos/DSS_brainstorm_2005.pdf]

          Before and during the discussion, let's refer to Clifford Mass’s paper, "The Uncoordinated Giant: Why U.S. Weather Research and Prediction Are Not Achieving Their Potential", and Chuck Doswell’s discourse, "On the use of models in meteorology", and let’s think about models in general.

 

Questions to promote discussion

 

1.     (a)  What would you like to see more of in decision support systems?
(b)  What would you like to see less of in decision support systems?

 

2.     (a)  What should we automate and how?
(b)  What should we not automate and why?
(c)  How can we increase automation and maintain expertise?

 

3.     (a)  If you could start from scratch, using all available and anticipated data and techniques, what sort of forecast products would you design to communicate forecast information effectively?
(b)  What sort of decision support systems would you develop to help forecasters to produce such forecast products effectively?

 

4.     Describe a day in the life of an operational meteorologist in 2015. Or, for the purposes of designing and developing useful decision support systems: Based on recent experiences, current challenges, and emerging opportunities, how will the role of the operational meteorologist evolve? [Let’s interpolate, extrapolate, and speculate, as forecasters and decision makers are inclined to do.]

 

Related Fora

 

·        MSC Forecaster's Forum III: "Forecasting and Services for the Future", 15-17 February 2005, Montréal, Québec.

·        MSC Forecaster's Forum II: "Science-Operations Connection", 24-26 February 2004, Toronto, Ontario.

·        "The Future Role of the Human in the Forecast Process", An Interactive Forum, 13-14 January 2004, AMS Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington.

 

[handouts]

 


 

 

Last updated 18 June 2005